Monday, March 04, 2019

Our View: Great news about gas, but no change to main obstacle

https://cyprus-mail.com/2019/03/03/our-view-great-news-about-gas-but-no-change-to-main-obstacle/

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...in any case we can count on Erdogan's Turkey to push his Agenda, perhaps too far. In effect Cyprus is important because, without Cyprus, so to speak, his supremacy on, and under, this sea is secured.

...let's not forget what Erdogan has said on the subject, that this is Turkey's Continental shelf, and that it covers a significant territory beyond Cyprus. And, let's not forget his plaint regarding the Treaty of Lausanne, that as far as he is concerned it is invalid. Indeed, Cyprus is not well positioned against Turkey as a military adversary under such circumstances. Its dependence on the unity of regional allies, and the Rule of Law, does not exclude a need for the support of larger powers (also allies with Turkey) with the Naval capacity to demonstrate a similar unity toward the Universal Principals Cyprus seeks to defend despite perhaps being in conflict with each other, these threats having been identified as the same threat to them all.

...in a counter intuitive kind of way, i am hopeful. There will be a moment where it will be clear, Greece is next, so too Syria. Despite the short term nuances of allies, and enmity, with Turkey succeeding in dominating with its views, even Russia is not safe should the Bosporus be closed to them (one way or another). It does not stop at Cyprus, and it does not stop with Greece, Syria, and Lebanon, (Iran, Iraq,) either, until what spans from Italy's shores to whatever is east of it, south to Egypt, and Libya, is under Erdogan's control.

...the question is, who will fight, him?

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