Thursday, October 10, 2019

Eni will not drill off Cyprus if warships in the area

https://cyprus-mail.com/2019/10/10/eni-will-not-drill-off-cyprus-if-warships-in-the-area/

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...while ENI may be struggling with this venture, it is not hard to understand the company's position. They are in the business of oil, generally speaking, (to their shareholders,) for profit.

Turkey, at least Erdogan's Turkey, is not.

It is the Treaty of Lausanne, let's not forget, that he has "tossed out a window"; it is not the oil and gas, but total supremacy of this sea, and the Aegean he seeks. Being the region's largest country, "with the longest coastline", seems to justify in his mind its "equity". "International Law" as he defines it, what is "legal", returns to a time before this Treaty, never mind UNCLOS which he does not recognise, or respect. Witness in Syria, what he is doing: an invasion, an intention to change the demographics of a "safe zone" unilaterally. It will not surprise me when this too is linked to the Problem, as has been oil and gaz exploration, to satisfy Erdogan's expansionistic goals.

...in any case, Turkey has demonstrated that it will act militarily for its ambitions, and in affect he (Erdogan) has challenged the rest of us not "Turkish" to challenge him. Indeed, Mr. Trump has given him the "green light" to move ahead and solve these problems, (in a very 'man-to-man' kind of way,) and, this is his expectation when on November 13 they meet at the White House.

One has to wonder, in the grander scheme of things, if it is not better to negotiate as equals, if as adversaries each is equally interested in a solution. The East Med. Gas Forum, comes to mind. Its success with the Tripartite Agreements that led to its foundation can easily be extended to include: Turkey, Cyprus, Syria, and Turkey, Cyprus, Greece; it seems a natural progression, if the intention is a natural hegemony of the region, in competition (and cooperation,) with other regions internationally, also organised accordingly.

......goodwill on Turkey's part would be demonstrated, if ENI drills according to schedule; time will tell.



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