Wednesday, February 21, 2018
Cyprus: Gas search to continue despite Turkey's opposition
...what is Cyprus in this imbroglio is a very small part of the story. It is Turkey's "Continental Shelf" if you are willing to ignore UNCLOS, or the Agreements that have been made between Cyprus, Israel, Egypt and Greece, or the legal rights of Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria, (based on it).
...should the Saipem withdraw, it is likely that Turkey, with her newly purchased rig, will do this work herself. And let's not forget (Turkey's new submarine) the Piri Reis which will in affect change the balance of Naval power in the Eastern Mediterranean, as it secures their exploration through force, something that Cyprus they will have demonstrated, cannot do.
...it is not likely that Exxon and Qatar, will be delayed in their explorations next week, off the coasts of Cyprus, the damage has been done. Greece is next, (or more accurately Syria, but no one will notice what with its war those incursions,) Egypt after that (and Lebanon); this is clear. If he can isolate Cyprus and exclude them from the exploration process, it may be possible for him to have his way, the way he sees it, an Eastern Mediterranean "belonging" to him. Who dares to fight?
...let's also remember for Erdogan it is an election year.
To stop, Erdogan's Turkey will demand a Tribute, something bigger, like Visa free travel to the EU.
...but I don't think his intention is to stop, even if he gets what he wants